On September 29, Professor Youngjae Kim’s Climate Change Economics and Policy class at KDI School hosted a special online lecture by Dr. Shouro Dasgupta, Environmental Economist at the Fondazione CMCC. Originally from Bangladesh and trained in the US and Italy, Dr. Dasgupta is a lead author for the upcoming IPCC AR7 Working Group III report and contributes to the Lancet Countdown on climate change and health. His research focuses on the socioeconomic impacts of climate change—particularly on labor, food security, inequality, and human health—using applied econometrics, with a strong interest in how climate shocks affect households and the role of social protection policies in adaptation.

Topic 1: Food Insecurity, Access, and Nutrition

Dr. Dasgupta began by examining the links between climate change and food systems, moving beyond traditional measures of crop production to emphasize access, affordability, and nutrition. He explained that while food production and GDP per capita have increased over recent decades, the number of people experiencing food insecurity has also risen—a troubling trend observed since around 2017.

Food insecurity, he reminded students, is not only about availability but also about whether food reaches people at the right place and price, and whether nutrition and basic services like clean water and healthcare are ensured. Climate change exacerbates these vulnerabilities by influencing crop yields, income, food supply chains, prices, and even sanitation and health conditions.

Using panel data and attribution methods, his team estimated that 151 million additional people experienced food insecurity between 1981 and 2010 due to the combined effects of heat waves and droughts. Looking forward, he warned that the gap between optimistic climate pathways and severe warming scenarios could result in up to 530 million more food-insecure people by the end of the century. His team’s  findings point to the urgency of emission reductions, investment in resilient food systems, early warning systems, and social safety nets.

During the session, Jese Buiqio Tuibuca (MPP 2024) asked why the study used the 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-12) for drought measurement and whether this choice could introduce bias depending on crop type or region. Dr. Dasgupta explained that SPI-12 was chosen because the analysis was conducted at the annual level, allowing researchers to count the number of months meeting the World Meteorological Organization’s drought thresholds. As a robustness check, SPI-6 was also applied, yielding consistent results, while studies with higher-frequency data often use SPI-3. He emphasized that the appropriate drought index is context-dependent: annual data justifies SPI-12, whereas more granular data benefits from shorter time-frame indices.

Topic 2: Building Evidence for Labor Force Regulations (UK Case Study)

The second part of the lecture shifted focus to climate change and labor markets, particularly how heat stress affects workers. Globally, nearly 2.4 billion people face excessive workplace heat exposure, a growing threat to health and productivity. In the UK, where robust evidence has been limited, Dr. Dasgupta’s survey of over 2,000 workers during a 2024 heatwave provided valuable insights.

Results showed that nearly one-third of respondents reported negative health impacts, while half of the workforce lacked access to air conditioning. Adaptation strategies included shifting work hours, taking more breaks, or increasing water intake. However, effectiveness depended on worker empowerment: those able to adjust their schedules or locations fared much better. Importantly, heat alert systems significantly reduced health risks and productivity losses, suggesting that broader adoption could avoid up to 66.7 million lost working hours annually in the UK.

In the discussion that followed, students raised questions about whether workers in high-risk, high-exposure sectors might eventually see wage premiums for enduring harsh conditions or instead remain trapped in low-wage, vulnerable jobs. Tyronne James Jimenez Buico (MDP 2024) asked how the study’s finding—that workers in high climate-exposure sectors face greater risks but also higher adoption probabilities—might translate into wage dynamics, questioning whether an adoption wage premium could emerge or if vulnerable workers in fields like agriculture and fisheries risk being trapped in high-risk, low-wage conditions. In response, the Dr. Dasgupta emphasized that such workers indeed face heightened risks, including the possibility of dropping out of the labor force, which could lead to labor shortages. Mitigation strategies discussed included early warning systems such as heat alerts, protective measures, negotiated work adjustments on extreme heat days, and especially social protection mechanisms like insurance and minimum income schemes. He noted that while many of these programs are still in trial phases—citing South Korea’s ongoing debate over insurance for at-risk workers—long-term solutions must be multifaceted, combining social protection, reskilling, and labor market adjustments to safeguard vulnerable populations.

Dr. Dasgupta’s lecture underscored the far-reaching consequences of climate change for both human well-being and economic stability. His evidence-based research on food systems and labor markets demonstrates not only the urgency of emission reductions but also the importance of adaptation policies tailored to local contexts. The discussion left KDI School students with critical insights into how rigorous academic work can directly inform global and national policymaking.